CAKE · Nasdaq · Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
$106.28-3.2%Nov 12 close
Figures through September 29, 2026, from the 10-Q filed November 2, 2026
Runs full-service restaurants famous for huge menus and cheesecake, plus sells cheesecakes in stores.
Three scenarios, opening on what this business has actually done — its realised growth rates and its own P/E range, not round numbers we chose. Change any assumption and every figure below it moves. These are scenarios you are setting, not forecasts.
CAKE is one of a few companies where this is open to everyone.
What the company reported, then what each case assumes for the next years — every figure below follows from the cells you can change.
Tinted cells are yours to change — click one, type a number, press Enter. Everything else in the table and the chart follows from them.
| Year | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.8B | $4B | $4.2B | $4.4B | $4.6B | $4.8B | $5.1B |
| Revenue growth | +4.1% | +4.1% | +4.7% | +7.9% | |||||
| Net income | $101.4M | $156.8M | $148.4M | $208M | $218.5M | $229.2M | $240.2M | $251.5M | $263M |
| Net income growth | +135.0% | +54.7% | -5.3% | +29.4% | +5.0% | +4.9% | +4.8% | +4.7% | +4.6% |
| Net margin | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | |||||
| EPS | $2.07 | $3.20 | $3.06 | $4.22 | $4.50 | $4.78 | $5.07 | $5.38 | $5.69 |
| P/E low | 15.6x | 14.3x | 16.1x | 25.2x | |||||
| P/E high | |||||||||
| Share price low | $32 | $46 | $49 | $106 | $102 | $96 | $89 | $95 | $100 |
| Share price high | $111 | $116 | $121 | $128 | $136 | ||||
| Yearly return low | -4.3% | -4.9% | -5.7% | -2.9% | -1.2% | ||||
| Yearly return high | +4.5% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +4.8% | +5.0% | ||||
| Shares | 49.05M | 48.97M | 48.55M | 49.18M | Change in share count per year, all cases | ||||
Net income growth is worked out from revenue and margin, never typed. A cell with a thick coloured border is a year you typed over; empty it to go back to the case's path. Reported prices are the close at each period's end; yearly return is measured from today's price.
The line to the left of today is what the share price actually did. Everything to the right follows from the assumptions below it — change one and this redraws.
The range is the low and high multiple each case allows. A bar crossing zero means that case is not clearly a gain.
Not available: management guidance, which we hold only as sentences rather than as rates and analyst estimates, which we do not licence.
If you want a single expected return, give each case a probability. Nothing is filled in for you, and nothing appears until all three are set — these are your odds, not ours.
Every figure below the assumptions is arithmetic, not analysis. Compounding earnings faster than revenue raises the implied margin every year — the model says so out loud rather than quietly returning a bigger number.
Defaults come from The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated’s own filings and its own trading history. Each case starts at today’s P/E and moves toward the stock’s own range over three years, never more than 30% from where it starts. This is not investment advice and not a recommendation.